NFL Picks: NY Giants Meet Defending Champions Green Bay Packers

Sunday, January 15, 2012

by Aengus Moorehead

NFL Picks: NY Giants Meet Defending Champions Green Bay Packers

Analysis:
The New York Giants will look to avenge a 38-35 loss to the Packers last month when they visit Green Bay in an NFL divisional round matchup on Sunday. The stakes are considerably higher this time, much as they were four years ago in the last postseason game at Lambeau Field, when the Giants outlasted the Packers in overtime to advance to the Super Bowl in what was Brett Favre's last game with Green Bay. It promises to be an emotional game for the reigning Super Bowl champs following the drowning death of offensive coordinator Joe Philbin's son earlier in the week.

The Giants had their 2010 postseason prospects wrecked by a 45-17 thrashing at the hands of the Packers in their most recent stop in Wisconsin, which took place in the second-to-last week of that year's regular season. That lopsided victory also served as a springboard to Green Bay's run to an eventual Super Bowl title, with the team prevailing in six consecutive games to capture the Lombardi Trophy beginning with that result.

Last week, the Giants dominated the Falcons across both lines of scrimmage en route to a 24-2 blowout, with New York rushing for a season-best 172 yards on the afternoon while its resurgent defense yielded a scant 247 total yards in the near-shutout.

New York has permitted just 30 points during its last three games and comes into Sunday's tilt with no shortage of swagger, as illustrated by All-Pro defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul's bold guarantee of a win this weekend.

The defense will surely face a stern challenge from Aaron Rodgers, however. The Green Bay sharp-shooter has thrown for 773 yards and eight touchdowns Pack's last two ousts of the Giants.

Rodgers rested in the Packers' Week 17 finale, with well-regarded backup Matt Flynn shattering franchise single-game records for passing yards (480) and touchdown strikes (six) in a superb fill-in performance to lead the defending world champs to a 45-41 win over Detroit.

Green Bay also held out wide receiver Greg Jennings (knee), running back James Starks (ankle), offensive tackle Bryan Bulaga (knee) and rookie return man Randall Cobb (groin) against the Lions, but all are on track to suit up for Sunday's pivotal tilt.

It's unclear as to whether the Packers will have offensive coordinator Joe Philbin available, however, after the valued assistant took an indefinite leave of absence from the team during its playoff preparations. Philbin's 21-year-old son, Michael, died in a drowning accident this past weekend.

Green Bay head coach Mike McCarthy didn't believe the situation would have a negative effect on his players' focus when he addressed the media on Wednesday, however.

The Packers bring a 13-game home winning streak into Sunday's matchup and have come out on top in each of their three Divisional Round games they've hosted after receiving a bye week, having previously done so in the 1996, 1997 and 2007 NFC Playoffs.

These two storied franchises have opposed one another a total of six times in the postseason, with the above-noted 2007 NFC Championship the last of those meetings. The other five playoff bouts between the teams all occurred in the NFL Championship Game, with Green Bay winning the 1939, 1944, 1961 and 1962 editions and New York earning a 23-17 decision at the Polo Grounds in the 1938 title clash. The Giants are 1-2 all-time as the visitor against the Packers in postseason play.

Green Bay's Week 13 win at MetLife Stadium gave the Packers a 27-21-2 lead in a regular-season series with New York that dates back to 1928 and was the team's sixth victory in its last seven non-playoff tests against the Giants. That includes the previously-mentioned 45-17 pasting of New York at Lambeau Field during Week 16 of the 2010 season, a result that helped propel the eventual Super Bowl champion Packers into the NFC Playoffs as the sixth seed and kept the Giants out of the postseason.

New York's Tom Coughlin is just 2-5 against the Packers during his head coaching career, which includes a pair of losses while at the helm of the Jacksonville Jaguars from 1995-2002, but did lead the Giants to the above- mentioned overtime triumph at Lambeau in the 2007 NFC Championship. McCarthy is 3-1 against both Coughlin and the Giants over his six-year tenure with the Packers, with the lone blemish coming in the conference title game four years back.

McCarthy has compiled a 5-2 record in the postseason, while Coughlin upped his career playoff mark to 9-7 with last Sunday's verdict and is 5-3 in such games while with the Giants.

Time & Venue:
- 4:30 PM ET, Sunday, January 15, 2012. Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin

Last Week's results:
- New York Giants (-3) beats visiting Atlanta Falcons 24-2.
- Green Bay Packers (+3.5) beats visiting Detroit Lions 45-41 in week 17.

Last week's ATS:
- Favourite New York Giants (10-7) wins and covers
- Underdog Green Bay Packers (15-1) wins outright.

NFL Football Odds: Packers -9, O/U 53.5

Team records:
- New York Giants: 9-7 SU, 8-7-1 ATS
- Green Bay Packers: 15-1 SU, 11-5 ATS

Against the Falcons, Eli Manning continued his stellar season by throwing for 277 yards and three touchdowns – two to Hakeem Nicks – to secure a rematch with Green Bay. Manning has had to carry the load this season due to the Giants’ league-worse ground game, but even that changed last week as Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw combined for 155 of New York’s 172 rushing yards. WR Mario Manningham, who missed the last two games due to injury, had four receptions for 68 yards and a TD. New York’s defense has permitted a total of 30 points in the three-game winning streak.


While the Giants are eager for another shot at Green Bay, they need to figure out how to stop Rodgers from carving up their defense. Rodgers threw for 45 TDs against only six interceptions while sitting out the season finale. He burned the Giants for 369 yards and four scoring passes last month, and threw for 404 yards with four TDs in that 45-17 rout of New York in December 2010.

Rodgers gets his top target back Jennings, who missed the last three games with a knee injury. Jennings has 14 receptions for 236 yards and a TD in his last two games against New York. Despite ranking last in overall defense, the Packers had an NFL-best 31 interceptions.

Special teams is an area in which the Packers seem to have an edge, as kicker Mason Crosby made good on a career-best 85.7 percent (24-of-28) of his field goal attempts during the regular season and the dynamic Cobb quickly established himself as one of the league's premier return specialists.

The 2011 second- round pick finished second in the NFC with a splendid 27.7 average on kickoffs and added a solid 11.3 yards per punt return, and took both a kick and a punt back for a touchdown during his debut campaign. Second-year punter Tim Masthay was an asset as well, placing 23 of his 55 attempts inside the enemy's 20-yard line while boosting his gross average from 43.9 in 2010 to 45.6 this season.

The Giants have few standouts on the special-teams front, though punter Steve Weatherford (45.7 avg.) turned in a good first season after switching over from the fellow North Jersey-tenant Jets and is coming off an excellent showing in the Wild Card round in which none of his four boots were returned. Kicker Lawrence Tynes, perhaps best remembered for knocking home a 47-yard field goal in overtime that sent New York to the Super Bowl with its 2007 NFC Championship besting of the Packers, was a mediocre 19-of-24 on three-point tries this season and an even shakier 4-of-8 from beyond 40 yards.

The return units were also nothing to write home about, with the Giants ranking 22nd in kickoff runbacks and a poor 29th on punts. Devin Thomas (24.3 avg.) and rookie receiver Jerrel Jernigan (23.3 avg.) handle kickoff duties, with Aaron Ross (7.1 avg.) replaced by ex-Packer Will Blackmon (4.2 avg.) as the primary punt returner late in the season.

Green Bay went 8-0 at home this season and has won 13 consecutive games at Lambeau Field.

The stakes are usually high when the Packers and Giants meet in the postseason. The first five meetings decided the NFL Championship, and the last one was for the NFC title.

The stakes are usually high when the Packers and Giants meet in the postseason. The first five meetings decided the NFL Championship, and the last one was for the NFC title.

The total has gone OVER in 6 of Green Bay's last 7 games when playing NY Giants
Green Bay is 6-2 SU in their last 8 games when playing NY Giants
Green Bay is 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Giants last 6 games on the road
NY Giants are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games on the road

There seems to be one team that rises from the ranks of a lesser seed and makes an unexpected championship push every playoff season, and there's mounting evidence that this edition of the Giants could be the one that duplicates what its 2007 predecessors and last year's Packers were both able to accomplish. And with a recent tragedy providing a potential distraction and the possibility of rust due to an extended layoff, Green Bay looks to be at its most vulnerable as it enters this game.

Then again, the Packers have proven in the past to be an outfit capable of overcoming great adversity, as evidenced by last season's championship march in which McCarthy's charges withstood an inordinate amount of potentially-devastating injuries, and let's not forget that this is a team that went 15-1 during the regular season and hasn't lost at home since October of 2010.

The Giants are in peak form and should once again give the NFC favorites a serious challenge, but Rodgers' past success against the defense he'll face on Sunday will show up in a result that could very well be eerily similar to the one when these two contenders last went toe-to-toe.

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NFL Football Pick: Take points and Giants.

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aaron rodgers - aaron ross - ahmad bradshaw - atlanta falcons - brandon jacobs - bryan bulaga - detroit lions - devin thomas - eli manning - green bay packers

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